US Grocery Price Report: September 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September 2026 Consumer Price Index on October 14, 2026 (release USDL-26-1574). The food at home index fell 0.1% in September and rose 1.8% over the 12 months ending in September. Overall inflation ran hotter than grocery inflation: the all items index rose 3.7% year over year.
Three of the six major grocery groups fell in September. BLS attributes the monthly dip mainly to beef and milk: the beef index fell 1.0% on the month and the milk index declined 2.0%.
This report covers what got cheaper, what is still rising, and what the USDA expects next. For shelf-level prices instead of index numbers, see our US Staple Grocery Price Tracker, which reprices the same basket every week.
The six grocery groups
Cereals and bakery products: up 2.1% year over year, up 0.1% in September. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: up 0.3% year over year, down 0.5% in September. Dairy and related products: down 0.7% year over year, down 0.9% in September.
Fruits and vegetables: up 3.7% year over year, up 0.5% in September. Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials: up 3.8% year over year, up 0.9% in September. Other food at home: up 1.8% year over year, down 0.2% in September.
What got cheaper
Eggs are the big story of 2026. The egg index fell 20.6% year over year and another 1.3% in September. In BLS average price data, a dozen Grade A large eggs averaged $2.27 in September 2026, down from $3.49 in September 2025.
Dairy is the other soft spot. The dairy index fell 0.7% year over year, cheese fell 3.0%, and milk fell 2.0% in September alone, even though milk is still up 2.3% on the year. Pork fell 0.7% year over year and chicken fell 0.6%, even as the wider poultry category rose 1.1%.
What is still rising
Coffee leads the risers: up 7.1% year over year and 0.9% in September. Fish and seafood rose 6.9% year over year. Fresh fruits rose 4.9% and fresh vegetables 2.8%, pushing the produce group up 3.7% overall.
Beef needs a careful read. Beef and veal rose 3.5% year over year and uncooked ground beef rose 5.4%, but beef prices fell 1.0% in September. BLS average prices put ground beef at $6.79 a pound in September 2026, up from $6.32 a year earlier. One soft month does not reverse the trend, and the USDA section below explains why.
What the USDA expects next
The USDA Economic Research Service Food Price Outlook (September 2026 edition, the newest available) forecasts food at home prices to rise 2.4% across 2026, within a range of 1.8% to 3.0%. It forecasts beef and veal up 9.4% for the year, the largest increase of any category, because federally inspected beef production was about 2% lower year over year and is expected to stay below year-ago levels through the end of 2026.
The same outlook forecasts eggs down 29.4% for 2026 as production recovers, fresh vegetables up 5.7%, nonalcoholic beverages up 4.2%, pork up 1.2%, poultry up 1.0%, and dairy nearly flat at up 0.1%. Food at home rose 2.3% in 2025, so the USDA view is that 2026 lands close to last year overall, with beef and eggs moving hard in opposite directions underneath.
What this means for a weekly shop
The categories with falling prices, eggs, cheese, pork, and chicken, are where regular prices are already reasonable and ads are aggressive. The categories still rising, coffee, produce, and fish, are where unit prices and store brands save the most.
Beef is the swing item. With the USDA expecting tight supply into 2027, the practical move is to buy ground beef and roasts on weekly ad prices and freeze them, rather than paying regular price. Our weekly tracker and deals watch flag those ad prices as they appear.
Sources and how to read this report
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index News Release, September 2026 (USDL-26-1574, released October 14, 2026), Tables A, 1, and 2, and BLS Average Price data for September 2026; USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook, September 2026 edition. The next BLS release, covering October 2026, is scheduled for November 10, 2026.
Method note: the CPI is an index. It measures how prices change, not what you pay at a specific store, and BLS average prices are US city averages. Our staple tracker covers the shelf-price side of the same story. October and November 2025 CPI values are missing from some BLS series because of the 2025 lapse in federal appropriations; no September 2026 figures are missing.
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